Current validation practice undermines surgical AI development

arXiv:2511.03769v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Surgical data science (SDS) is rapidly advancing, yet clinical adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) in surgery remains severely limited, with inadequate validation emerging as a key obstacle. In fact, existing validation practices often neglect the temporal and hierarchical structure of intraoperative videos, producing misleading, unstable, or clinically irrelevant results. In a pioneering, consensus-driven effort, we introduce the first comprehensive catalog of validation pitfalls in AI-based surgical video analysis that was derived from a multi-stage Delphi process with 91 international experts. The collected pitfalls span three categories: (1) data (e.g., incomplete annotation, spurious correlations), (2) metric selection and configuration (e.g., neglect of temporal stability, mismatch with clinical needs), and (3) aggregation and reporting (e.g., clinically uninformative aggregation, failure to account for frame dependencies in hierarchical data structures). A systematic review of surgical AI papers reveals that these pitfalls are widespread in current practice, with the majority of studies failing to account for temporal dynamics or hierarchical data structure, or relying on clinically uninformative metrics. Experiments on real surgical video datasets provide the first empirical evidence that ignoring temporal and hierarchical data structures can lead to drastic understatement of uncertainty, obscure critical failure modes, and even alter algorithm rankings. This work establishes a framework for the rigorous validation of surgical video analysis algorithms, providing a foundation for safe clinical translation, benchmarking, regulatory review, and future reporting standards in the field.