Ecological systems in a modeling perspective

arXiv:2603.26860v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: May (1974,1976) opened the debate on whether biological populations might exhibit nonlinear dynamics and chaos. However, it has in general been difficult to verify nonlinear dynamics in biological populations. There are many reports concerning problems with this issue and some of them can be traced back to Hassell, Lawton, and May (1976) and Morris (1990).
Our objective is not a discussion of the presence of nonlinear dynamics in biological populations. Instead, we analyze whether ecological census data can be used for validating nonlinearities at all. We choose our models and our situation so that as much as possible can be done rigorously with by hand computations.
We consider a clearly nonlinear chemostat based model that is isolated. Some noise must be considered, and we choose a minimal approach: Only noise originating from the fact that ecological populations remain finite is considered, cf. Bailey (1964). In ecology, exceptionally long and famous time series are those collected by Nicholson (1954) and Utida (1957). Our judgement is that ecological time series data containing a few hundred data points is exceptionally long.