Disentangling the interactive effects of anthropogenic disturbances on biodiversity

arXiv:2603.29116v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Anthropogenic activity threatens biodiversity through climate change, habitat fragmentation, and increasing frequency and scale of disturbance. Various theoretical studies have sought to shed light on how these factors could promote or hinder the coexistence of species. However, our understanding of the relative importance of, and interactions between, these factors remains limited. In this study, we employ a theoretical approach integrating three commonly cited coexistence mechanisms — the competition-colonisation trade-off, the intermediate disturbance hypothesis, and spatial heterogeneity — into a unified model. We implement a novel method to integrate habitat autocorrelation into a system of differential equations, to create a simple and flexible model that can be used to investigate coexistence of multiple species arranged in a competitive hierarchy under different disturbance and habitat structure scenarios. Using this model, we find that considering interactions between different mechanisms is crucial for explaining the coexistence of species. Biodiversity patterns alternative to the uni-peak curve predicted by the intermediate disturbance hypothesis (e.g., bimodal) emerge along disturbance gradients as habitat fragmentation increases. Furthermore, habitat loss outweighs habitat autocorrelation effects in highly disturbed scenarios, yet autocorrelation can shape species coexistence under low disturbance. These findings underscore the need to integrate spatial and temporal mechanisms in biodiversity management.