arXiv:2604.25714v2 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: Mosquito vector competence is usually represented as a process in which once virus is detected in saliva, mosquitoes are assumed to remain infectious for life, implying an irreversible transition to the transmitting state. However, some experiments report declines in the proportion of transmitting mosquitoes at late times post-exposure, suggesting transmission capacity may not be permanent. To investigate this hypothesis, we extended a previously developed stochastic intra-vector viral dynamics model by introducing transmission states allowing either permanent cessation or temporary interruption of transmission. We fitted three competing models to data from 52 vector competence conditions covering chikungunya, dengue, Zika, West Nile, and Rift Valley fever viruses, using Approximate Bayesian Computation with Sequential Monte Carlo inference. Among the 10 experimental conditions showing decline in transmitter proportions, models allowing exit from the transmitting state provided a better fit in 7 cases, with clear improvement in 5. In these cases, allowing interruption of transmission increased posterior estimates of the proportion of mosquitoes that crossed all intra-mosquito barriers, whereas estimates of infected and disseminated state durations were largely unchanged. In cases where intermittent transmission was selected, its performance was similar to that of permanent cessation with non-transmitting periods lasting several days. These results indicate that the assumption of lifelong mosquito infectiousness does not always provide the best explanation for vector competence data and may lead to underestimation of the proportion of mosquitoes that become capable of transmission. Incorporating time-varying transmission competence into intra-vector models could improve interpretation of vector competence experiments and refine epidemiological representations of arbovirus transmission.
Based on dual perspectives of management and ethics: exploring challenges and governance approaches for new media applications in psychiatric specialty hospitals
The further promotion and application of new media technologies present new opportunities for psychiatric specialty hospitals in areas such as health education, doctor-patient communication, service