Does Topic Sentiment Cause Perceived Ideology? Comparing Human and LLM Annotations in Political News Articles

arXiv:2606.06715v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: We ask whether topic sentiment has a causal effect on perceived political ideology, and whether the answer depends on who assigns the ideology label. Using articles from AllSides, paired with shared sentiment annotations from Llama-3.3-70b-versatile, we compare ideology labels from expert human annotators, GPT-4o-mini (baseline and finetuned), and Llama-3.3-70B. We apply Double Machine Learning (DML) and community-level mediation analysis across all four annotation paradigms. Human annotations yield no significant causal effects at the community level. Fine-tuned GPT-4o-mini achieves the highest classification accuracy (F1=72.48) and is the only annotator paradigm that produces significant community-level treatment effects and significant natural direct effects (NDEs) in mediation. We interpret this as evidence of shortcut learning: fine-tuning on ideology-labeled data causes the model to internalise a spurious sentiment–ideology coupling not operative in human judgment for this task. This coupling is structurally invisible to F1-based evaluation, with implications for the use of LLM annotations as silver labels and as proxies for human judgment in downstream causal analyses.