Bounds on $R_0$ and final epidemic size when the next-generation matrix $M$ is only partially known

arXiv:2602.23885v2 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: We study a multitype SIR epidemic model where individuals are categorized into different types, and where infection spread is characterized by a next-generation matrix $M=m_ij$ with community fractions $\pi_j$ for the different types of individuals. We analyse two key quantities: the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and the final epidemic outcome of the different types $\tau_i$. We consider the situation where $M$ is only partly known, through the row sums $r_i$ or the column sums $c_j$, and treat both a general $M$ and the special but common situation where $M$ is proportional to a contact matrix satisfying detailed balance. For a general $M$, which is partially observed through $r_i$ or $c_j$, we obtain sharp upper and lower bounds of $R_0$ and $\tau_i$, but for the case where $M$ satisfies detailed balance the problem is harder: our obtained bounds for $R_0$ are narrower than the general case but still not sharp, and bounds for the final size are only obtained when there are two types of individual.