• Home
  • Uncategorized
  • High-Precision Estimation of the State-Space Complexity of Shogi via the Monte Carlo Method

arXiv:2604.06189v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Determining the state-space complexity of the game of Shogi (Japanese Chess) has been a challenging problem, with previous combinatorial estimates leaving a gap of five orders of magnitude ($10^64$ to $10^69$). This large gap arises from the difficulty of distinguishing Shogi positions legally reachable from the initial position among the vast number of valid board configurations. In this paper, we present a high-precision statistical estimation of the number of reachable positions in Shogi. Our method combines Monte Carlo sampling with a novel reachability test that utilizes a reverse search toward a set of “King-King only” (KK) positions, rather than a single-target backward search to the single initial position. This approach significantly reduces the search effort for determining unreachability. Based on a sample of 5 billion positions, we estimated the number of legal positions in Shogi to be $6.55 times 10^68$ (to three significant digits) with a $3sigma$ confidence level, substantially improving upon previously known bounds. We also applied this method to Mini Shogi, determining its complexity to be approximately $2.38 times 10^18$.

Subscribe for Updates

Copyright 2025 dijee Intelligence Ltd.   dijee Intelligence Ltd. is a private limited company registered in England and Wales at Media House, Sopers Road, Cuffley, Hertfordshire, EN6 4RY, UK registration number 16808844