ChronoMedicalWorld: A Medical World Model for Learning Patient Trajectories from Longitudinal Care Data

arXiv:2605.21963v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Long-horizon clinical simulation — predicting how a patient’s physiology evolves over years under specified interventions — is central to chronic-disease care, yet existing electronic health record (EHR) models are predominantly discriminative, and general-purpose large language models drift under repeated interventions. We propose the textbfChronoMedicalWorld Model (CMWM), an action-conditioned latent world-model framework for learning patient trajectories from longitudinal care data. CMWM couples a joint-embedding state encoder with a wide action encoder that admits both structured intervention indicators and free-text communication embeddings, and trains a recurrent latent transition module under a six-term objective: next-observation supervision, next-latent prediction, SIGReg latent regularisation, and three physiology-aware shape priors (slope, continuity, large-jump penalty). A closed-loop rollout-prefix protocol matches training to deployment, so the model is optimised against the same multi-step error it exhibits at inference. As a concrete case study, we instantiate CMWM for annual estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) trajectory forecasting in chronic kidney disease (CKD). On a 2,232-patient nephrology cohort, the CKD instantiation achieves a dynamic-50% history rollout test mean absolute error (MAE) of 7.384 and root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 10.256, against 7.964 and 11.069 for a tuned GPT-5.5 structured-prompting baseline ($-7.28%$ MAE, $-7.35%$ RMSE), with the gain dominated by the dialogue portion of patient–health-coach communication. The framework is not CKD-specific: its architecture, loss design, and training protocol apply to any chronic condition that can be cast as periodic clinical state interleaved with structured and conversational interventions.