Possibilistic Predictive Uncertainty for Deep Learning

arXiv:2605.00600v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Deep neural networks achieve impressive results across diverse applications, yet their overconfidence on unseen inputs necessitates reliable epistemic uncertainty modelling. Existing methods for uncertainty modelling face a fundamental dilemma: Bayesian approaches provide principled estimates but remain computationally prohibitive, while efficient second-order predictors lack rigorous derivations connecting their specific objectives to epistemic uncertainty quantification. To resolve this dilemma, we introduce Dirichlet-approximated possibilistic posterior predictions (DAPPr), a principled framework leveraging possibility theory. We define a possibilistic posterior over parameters, projects this posterior to the prediction space via supremum operators, and approximates the projected posterior using learnable Dirichlet possibility functions. This projection-and-approximation strategy yields a simple training objective with closed-form solutions. Extensive experiments across diverse benchmarks demonstrate that our approach achieves competitive or superior uncertainty quantification performance compared to state-of-the-art evidential deep learning methods while maintaining both principled derivation and computational efficiency. Code will be available at https://github.com/MaxwellYaoNi/DAPPr.