LAST-RAG: Literature-Anchored Stochastic Trajectory Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Knowledge-Conditioned Degradation Model Selection

arXiv:2605.17902v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Stochastic-process-based degradation modeling is a core approach for estimating the distribution of remaining useful life (RUL); however, the selection of an appropriate stochastic process has not been sufficiently addressed. Existing model selection methods mainly rely on the statistical fit of the observed health indicator (HI) trajectory, but this approach may select a model that is inconsistent with the underlying degradation mechanism when the observation window is short or the signal is highly noisy. To address this issue, this paper proposes Literature-Anchored Stochastic Trajectory Retrieval-Augmented Generation (LAST-RAG). The proposed method uses both the observed HI trajectory and domain-specific context, and hierarchically conditions the candidate degradation model space based on theoretical and mechanical evidence retrieved from a local evidence bank. In addition, Rule-based Confidence Reasoning with Uncertain State (RCRUS) is introduced to prevent candidate models from being prematurely eliminated when hierarchical decisions are uncertain. Simulation-based experiments demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms statistical, prognostic, and uncertainty-aware baselines in both Wiener/gamma family classification and detailed degradation model classification. Ultimately, this study reframes degradation model selection from a purely statistical goodness-of-fit problem into a knowledge-conditioned decision-making problem that integrates observed data with domain knowledge.